Smart Cookie Newsletter - Issue #12

Why Waiting for January to Plan 2026 Is a Big Mistake

Author

Jimmy MacMillan
October 27th, 2025

Why Waiting for January to Plan 2026 Is a Big Mistake

Hello, Smart Cookie community! If you’re like most bakery owners and operators, late fall can feel overwhelming. The rush of holiday prep, mountains of inventory, and that constant feeling that there’s not enough time left in the year. You might be tempted to put off 2026 planning until January. After all, isn’t that what “everyone” does?

But here’s the hard truth: if your budgets, revenue targets, and inventory strategies for 2026 aren’t mapped out by the end of this year, you’ll start the new year already behind. We all get just 12 months to hit our targets—waiting until January to act means you’re squeezing a year of sales into 11 months, or scrambling to play catch-up while your competition gets a head start.

The Myth of the “January Planning Tradition”

Many bakeries have fallen into the trap: January is for diets and downtime, so “that’s when we plan.” But if you delay budget and sales planning, you miss the chance to set the tone and pace for the entire year. January is often the slowest month for bakeries as customers reset after the holidays and New Year's resolutions dampen those spontaneous pastry purchases. That makes it the single worst month to start formulating a plan—especially if you want 2026 to be your biggest year yet.

Why You Can’t Afford to Wait

  • Lost Sales: Each month you delay revenue and sales goals is money you’ll never make up. Those lost weeks don’t magically reappear.

  • Budget Drift: Without early clarity, expenses creep up and cost control weakens, forcing you into reactive decision-making.

  • Inventory Waste: Slow Januarys often turn into inventory purges, with product and ingredient losses that can be avoided with proactive planning.

  • Labor Gaps: If you’re not forecasting labor needs and hours, you risk overstaffing slow weeks or under-supporting your team when the pace returns.

5 Simple Actions to Get Ahead of Q1 2026

  1. Set Next Year’s Revenue Targets NOW 

    Break your 2026 revenue targets down by area—whether it’s retail, wholesale, catering, or online. Don’t wait until the calendar flips; set your numbers and make your plan before the ball drops.

  2. Finalize (and Communicate) Your Budget

    Lock in your big expense lines, marketing spend, and necessary capital investments now. Share these with your managers and leads, so everyone starts 2026 with real clarity.

  3. Review January’s Historical Sales and Inventory Trends 

    Look back at the past two or three years: what sold, what sat, and what went to waste? Use this data to adjust production and purchasing, minimizing January losses before they happen.

  4. Tighten Up Labor Plans

    Don’t let January’s downtimes catch you by surprise.

    Plan for lighter schedules, cross-train staff for flexibility, and use this “quiet” period for training, deep cleaning, or process documentation.

  5. Launch a “New Year, New Treat” Campaign Now

    Don’t let resolutions chase away all business. Start planning customer engagement campaigns for January—think healthier menu launches, “break the resolution” specials, bakery classes, or loyalty programs to keep your regulars engaged.

Final Thought: Be the Bakery That Leads, Not Follows

If you want to break the cycle of starting each year behind, the time to act is NOW. You owe it to your team, your customers, and your profit margins to avoid leaving January to chance.

Don’t fall into the “we’ll plan in January” routine. Get proactive, finalize your 2026 vision, and you’ll be celebrating wins long before your competitors even start.

Keep Rising

Jimmy MacMillan

Principal Chef, Consultant, Successful Bakery

P.S. If you’re interested in tools, templates, or a quick consult to get started, reply to The Smart Cookie—let’s make 2026 your year of smarter, faster bakery growth