Smart Cookie Newsletter - Issue #9

Smart Cookie Newsletter - Issue #9

Let’s Get Analytical About Bakery Growth in the Holidays

The holiday season is a data-driven bakery owner’s dream: it’s not just about more foot traffic, it’s about maximizing what happens when demand surges.

Here’s a deeper look at why, paired with industry metrics, strategic insights, and real-world examples you can use right now.

The Analytical Edge: Holiday Sales by the Numbers

1. Successful bakery operators track these metrics during the holidays for truly actionable insights:

   • Sales Per Product Line – Identify, expand, and promote the holiday items with the strongest margins and sales lift.

   • Average Transaction Value – Utilize bundle deals and upsell strategies to increase the ticket value.

   • Preorder & Online Volume – Monitor advance sales and digital demand for better planning and staffing.

   • Waste Percentage – Guard Your Margins: Track Daily Waste, Especially for Premium Items.

   • Customer Retention Rate – The holidays are your best shot at winning new regulars—measure how many first-time buyers return in January.

Historical Growth—October to December Sales

Bakery performance in the holiday quarter tells the real growth story:

• October 2024: Perimeter bakery sales edged up to $2.0 billion, a 0.3% year-over-year increase. Croissants showed standout growth (up 10.5% in unit sales), with cakes and cookies leading overall category sales. Cookies grew 3.8% to $316 million, and cakes held flat at $579 million.

• November 2024: Perimeter bakery sales lifted to $1.9 billion, up 1.7% from the previous year. Croissants (+7.7%), donuts (+7.5%), and muffins (+4.0%) posted significant gains, capitalizing on holiday demand surges.

• December 2024: Sales remained strong at $1.9 billion (down slightly by 0.3% due to calendar cut-off for New Year promotions). Croissants jumped 8.1% to $79.4 million, donuts up 4.5% to $135 million, cookies up 1.7% to $321 million, and muffins eked out a 0.1% gain to $112 million.

Quarterly Takeaways:

While overall monthly sales hovered at or above $1.9 billion, category standouts—especially croissants, donuts, and cookies—demonstrate the value of focusing inventory, production, and promotions around proven holiday winners.

Note the opportunity cupcakes offer over cakes as we consider the festive season in its entirety.

Tracking October through December reveals not only the scale of seasonal demand, but also clear product-level insights for next year’s planning.

Data in Action: Examples & Tactics

• One bakery used real-time analytics to discover croissant sales doubled on public holidays, prompting them to schedule extra production and bundle more breakfast boxes.

• Another lifted average holiday ticket size by 12% simply by tracking buying patterns and reconfiguring in-store displays for bestsellers and new gift packs.

Holiday Analytics Playbook:

1. Review last year’s sales by item and day—double down on your holiday all-stars, trim the slow movers.

2. Set up a dashboard for daily waste, preorders, and average transaction value throughout December.

3. Target high-engagement customers with digital loyalty perks and “bounceback” offers redeemable in January.

Wishing you a profitable holiday season and insightful analysis. Leverage this seasonal momentum, apply data-driven strategies, and transform short-term wins into sustainable business growth. Stay focused, adaptable, and let your numbers guide long-term success.

Keep rising,

Jimmy MacMillan

Principal Chef, Consultant, Successful Bakery

P.S. If you found this helpful, forward it to another bakery owner who could benefit from it. Growing together makes us all stronger.